Pre-holiday 2025 affiliate marketing insights: Start preparing today

What smart commerce publishers and advertisers are doing now to win the Holiday Season 2025.

Q4 is the golden quarter of commerce.  Buying behavior hits its peak on Black Friday 2025, Cyber Monday 2025, and the run-up to Christmas. But not all publishers and advertisers play the same role. A customized strategy is required to capture the upside.

Holiday Season 2024 was record-breaking: Takeads publishers drove +179% more traffic YoY on Black Friday, and average order value was 20%+ YoY higher over the season. This highlights both the strength of consumer demand and the opportunity to convert it more effectively in 2025’s affiliate marketing landscape.

Key market indicators: more intelligent deal-hunting

Consumers are more purposeful and data-driven in how they shop:

• Holiday sales growth is cooling — U.S. holiday sales are forecast to grow 3.6% in 2025 (vs 4.1% in 2024). Online sales are expected to rise 7.9%. (Reuters)
  
• Black Friday 2024 was record-breaking — online sales were $10.8B (+10.2% YoY), representing 4.1% of total holiday e-commerce sales. (Red Stag Fulfillment)
  
• Affiliate marketing’s increasing role — in 2025, affiliate marketing will impact $210B in US e-commerce sales, with advertisers spending $12B+ on programs. (eMarketer)
  
• Content & creators power growth — creator-driven affiliate revenue is surging, with influencers and content sites becoming key conversion drivers. (Publift)
  
• AI & mobile are deeply entrenched — over 70% of holiday purchases were completed on mobile; AI-powered search and recommendations are increasingly influencing product discovery. (NIQ)

Takeads Holiday Research

Our study analyzed thousands of advertisers and publishers worldwide, comparing Nov–Dec 2023 vs 2024. The period includes four weeks leading up to Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday, setting the baseline for Holiday Season 2025 affiliate marketing trends.

8 Key Affiliate Marketing Insights

1. Clicks

Black Friday last year saw 1.3X more traffic vs pre-Holiday baseline. Traffic surged, reflecting unmatched publisher reach.

Graph insight: Clicks grew faster than sales, signaling more “window-shopping” activity. With higher deal intent expected on Black Friday 2025, publishers that align early with strategic advertiser partnerships will capture the strongest traffic surges.

2. Actions

Transactions were up 2x YoY, and 268% compared to pre-Holiday season.

Graph insight: Despite traffic almost tripling, conversions grew modestly, demonstrating the need for optimized rates and stronger promotions. In Holiday Season 2025, expect actions to grow fastest for advertisers who test early Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2025 incentives.

3. Revenue

Gross revenue grew 6.5% YoY on Black Friday but jumped +37% on Thanksgiving thanks to higher AOVs.

Graph insight: Revenue growth was spotty by day, with advertisers that launched early promotions starting to earn earlier and gaining more in Q4 overall. In 2025, we expect affiliate marketing growth to be driven by longer campaign windows and regionally targeted offers.

4. Average order value

AOV grew consistently,reaching $116 on Black Friday (+20% YoY).

Graph insight: In spite of fewer shoppers, higher basket values fueled revenue. Publishers carrying premium deals benefited most. In Black Friday 2025, AOVs are projected to rise again as brands expand AI-personalized offers and dynamic pricing models.

5. Conversion rate

CR dropped from ~2.3% in 2023 to ~1.5% in 2024. This indicates that users are more discount- and price-sensitive than in previous years —  it’s worth watching if this tendency will also repeat itself this year as well.

Graph insight: High traffic diluted efficiency. Advertisers offering exclusives converted better than those with generic discounts. Expect conversion rates to rebound in Cyber Monday 2025, driven by data-led personalization and AI-driven recommendation engines.

6. Category insight

• Fashion & Accessories: +30% YoY, clear category winner.
• Home & Garden / Sports & Fitness: +20–25% YoY growth.
• Beauty: Underperformed in terms of conversions YoY despite traffic growth.
• Travel: Lower volume but high value commission (3.5× above average).

Graph insight: Fashion, sports, and home categories gain strong, while electronics underperformed with high interest from consumers.

7. Geo insight

Europe is closing the gap with the US in holiday adoption; localized offers convert better.

• US: +5% YoY online sales during BF weekend.
  
• Europe: +16% median YoY growth driven by Germany, UK, and France.
  
• Emerging markets: high clicks, lower CR (curiosity > intent).

Graph insight: Europe’s growth trajectory signals expanding opportunities in affiliate marketing across regional markets. Expect Germany, France, and the UK to lead affiliate marketing growth in 2025, with localized campaigns outperforming generic ones.

8. Don’t miss pre-holiday

Advertisers like Temu and AliExpress doubled outcomes by raising rates up to over 50% early in October and leveraging Singles’ Day as well as participating in Takeads Holiday Boost Contest last year.

Graph insight: Pre-season deals captured early planners. In 2025, brands activating pre-holiday content around Singles’ Day affiliate offers and early Black Friday reviews will carry stronger conversion momentum into Cyber Monday.

Strategic advice for advertisers and publishers: 2025 edition

For publishers

• Activate early traffic: Shoppers research in October. Have content and deals live before November.
  
• Prioritize high-value categories: Fashion, sports, and home drove the strongest revenue growth.
  
• Focus on AOV growth: Promote bundles and premium products to drive maximum commission per transaction.
  
• Leverage top-performing geos: Highlight localized offers in US, UK, Germany, and France where CRs are higher, and don’t overlook growing markets.
  
• Capitalize on peak days: Black Friday outperformed Cyber Monday in 2024 by 16% in transactions. Both these days will again dominate traffic in 2025. Push your best-performing offers across both.
  
• Create AI-friendly content structures: Clear metadata, FAQs, and product comparisons help AI search and zero-click discovery recommend your pages faster.

For advertisers

• Boost rates and exclusives: Brands that improved terms saw up to 23% higher conversion rates through tactical publisher partnerships.
  
• Don’t miss pre-season: October and Singles’ Day 2025 are pivotal to building early traffic momentum, as demonstrated by the examples of Temu and AliExpress.
  
• Tailor campaigns by category: Tech converts on Cyber Monday; fashion and home are optimal on Black Friday.
  
• Reward high-performing partners: Commission payments rose 11% overall. Strengthen incentives for publishers driving high-converting traffic.
  
• Invest in regional localization: Offer local payment options and localized creative to lift CR in fast-growing European markets.

Key Dates to Anchor Your Strategy

Nov 11 – Singles’ Day (Asia, growing globally)

Nov 28 – Black Friday

Dec 1 – Cyber Monday

Dec 14–20 – Final delivery window for standard shipping

Dec 25 – Christmas Day

Dec 26–31 – Boxing Day & end-of-year sales

Final Thought

Holiday Season 2024 proved that demand is stronger than ever, but conversion is the new challenge. The winners in 2025 will be publishers who activate early and advertisers who offer the best rates and exclusives.

👉 Ready to capture the biggest shopping season of the year? Get in touch with Takeads and let’s make Holiday 2025 your strongest yet.